Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.
منابع مشابه
Effects of Meteorological Parameters and PM10 on the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children in China
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a globally-prevalent infectious disease. However, few data are available on prevention measures for HFMD. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the impacts of temperature, humidity, and air pollution, particularly levels of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter 10 micrometers (PM10), on the incidence of HFMD in a city in Eastern Chin...
متن کاملTime Series Analysis of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Hospitalization in Zhengzhou: Establishment of Forecasting Models Using Climate Variables as Predictors
BACKGROUND Large-scale outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred frequently and caused neurological sequelae in mainland China since 2008. Prediction of the activity of HFMD epidemics a few weeks ahead is useful in taking preventive measures for efficient HFMD control. METHODS Samples obtained from children hospitalized with HFMD in Zhengzhou, Henan, China, were examined for t...
متن کاملIdentification of Health Risks of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China Using the Geographical Detector Technique
Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease, causing thousands of deaths among children in China over the past two decades. Environmental risk factors such as meteorological factors, population factors and economic factors may affect the incidence of HFMD. In the current paper, we used a novel model-geographical detector technique to analyze the effect of these factors on...
متن کاملSeroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection among patients with hand, foot and mouth disease in Henan, China: a hospital-based study
BACKGROUND The prevalence of infection with Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii) in humans has been increasing in China due to the growing number of cats in the country. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in China and still one of the leading causes of child mortality. However, little is known about the epidemiology of T. gondii infection among HFMD patients. METHOD...
متن کاملThe Epidemiological Study of Coxsackievirus A6 revealing Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Epidemic patterns in Guangdong, China
Enterovirus A71 (EVA71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) are regarded as the two major causative pathogens in hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics. However, CVA6, previously largely ignored, became the predominant pathogen in China in 2013. In this study, we describe the epidemiological trends of CVA6 during the annual HFMD outbreaks from 2008 to 2013 in Guangdong, China. The study resul...
متن کامل